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中国：人民币自由兑换未来10年内无望
2009-10-27 作者: 索菲亚•格利 英国《金融时报》 评论：0条 （我说几句）
根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)的观点，那些期待人民币实现自由兑换的人士可能会失望。
奥尼尔表示：“或许在未来10年里，中国会说‘我们没有让人民币自由浮动，却也取得了如今的成就'，并且把这种有管制的汇率体系强加给世界其它国家。”奥尼尔发明了“金砖四国”(Bric)这一概念，他认为巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国将在2050年前超越全球最富有的经济体，并据此将它们归为一组。
如果奥尼尔的观点正确，中国的境外投资者可能需要反思一下他们对人民币走向的假定。当前受管制的人民币兑美元汇率，令人民币以购买力平价衡量处于低估状态。国际货币基金组织(IMF)做过估算，虽然官方汇率为6.8元人民币兑1美元，但其实只花3.8元人民币就可买到价值1美元的商品。如果人民币升值至这一水平，在中国的投资项目的价值实际上就翻了一番。（翻译/何黎）
Investors expecting the Chinese currency, the renminbi, to become freely convertible may be disappointed, according to Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.
“Maybe in 10 years' time, China will say ‘We've got this far without floating the currency' and impose a controlled foreign exchange system on the rest of the world,” said Mr O'Neill, who came up with the Bric concept, which groups Brazil, Russia, India and China on the basis that they will overtake the world's richest economies by 2050.
If Mr O'Neill is right, foreign investors in China may need to rethink assumptions about the currency's direction. The current controlled exchange rate against the dollar has left the renminbi undervalued in terms of purchasing power parity. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that, although the official exchange rate is Y6.8 to $1, it takes just Y3.8 to buy a dollar's worth of goods. If the currency were to rise to this level, investments in China would effectively double in value.
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